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By STEPHEN S. ROACH Published: December 16, 2007 THE American economy is slipping into its second post-bubble recession in seven years. Just as the bursting of the dot-com bubble led to a downturn in 2001 and ’02, the simultaneous popping of the housing and credit bubbles is doing the same right now. This recession will be deeper than the shallow contraction earlier in this decade. The dot-com-led downturn was set off by a collapse in business capital spending, which at its peak in 2000 accounted for only 13 percent of the country’s gross domestic product. The current recession is all about the coming capitulation of the American consumer — whose spending now accounts for a record 72 percent of G.D.P. Consumers have no choice other than to retrench. Home prices are likely to fall for the nation as a whole in 2008, the first such occurrence since 1933. And access to home equity credit lines and mortgage refinancing — the means by which consumers have borrowed against their homes — is li...

The long-awaited, long-feared consumer crunch may finally be here. That might not mean an economywide recession, but the pain for American households will be deep. In recent years the U.S. mostly has seen narrowly focused downturns, where a few sectors are hit hard while the rest of the economy and financial markets remain relatively unscathed. In the dot-com bust of 2001, for example, tech companies and stocks took it on the chin, while consumer spending and borrowing sailed through without a pause. This time the positions will be reversed, as consumers tank while much of the corporate sector stays on track. It's been a glorious run for the consumer. In the past 25 years, Americans have kept shopping through good times and bad. In every quarter except one since 1981, consumer spending rose over the previous year, adjusted for inflation. The exception was the first quarter of 1991, and even then the decrease was a mild 0.4% dip. The main fuel for the spending was easy access to cre...

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- ``Their Pandora's box has been opened.'' That's how Yi Gang, the Beijing chief of the People's Bank of China, described what is among the most-tantalizing economic dynamics of our day: the get-rich-quick euphoria coursing through the world's most-populous nation. ``The Chinese people are no longer satisfied with putting their money in the banks after seeing the huge growth and development in the stock and real estate markets,'' Yi said yesterday, explaining as well as anyone why China's stock market keeps rising and rising -- and rising. It's hard to resist thinking Yi is inadvertently signaling the next phase of two Chinese bubbles -- one in real estate, one in stocks. China gives the concept of a pyramid scheme a whole new scale. After all, a key rationale for buying Chinese assets is that continued gains will only enroll ever-growing numbers of first-time investors. In all likelihood, things will end badly. Yet the scheme...

By William Pesek Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Investors in China aren't making money this week. The reason: Stock markets are closed. That's how easy it has become to ride China's stock boom; if the market is open, you can make money. It has long been known mainland shares are driven more by momentum than fundamentals -- more Ponzi scheme than market. With each passing day, though, things are becoming frothier and more surreal. Macau can't be happy. The island's proliferating casino business had designs on tapping a 1.3 billion-person market of gambling enthusiasts. These days, the real action isn't at Macau's baccarat tables, but in Shanghai and Shenzhen. What's happening in China is a transformation event. Rarely before, if ever, have investors been able to make so much money so quickly with so little knowledge of what they are buying. It's too late to call Chinese stocks a bubble, when Asia's No. 2 economy is experiencing a bubble in bubbles -- stock...

　　我是电台节目主持人，有十年的情感夜话主持经历，自认对情感问题可以兵来将当、水来土淹。我被经常问到的问题是，爱情为什么不能持久，结婚真的是爱情的坟墓吗？我的观点是，爱情只是一种化学反应，专家研究男欢女爱的激情最多维持24个月；再绚烂的爱情到达婚姻都会归与平淡，最终转化为亲情。只有用亲情缔结的婚姻才能更长久。 　　 　　但最近，一个来自福建的男人给我出了一个难题：他和妻子就是以深厚的亲情走到一起的，但他们没有爱情，以前没有，现在没有，将来也不会有！为躲避妻子，几年来他全国各地游荡，可是因为对妻子的一份亲情和责任，他又不能寻找真正属于自己的爱情。夜空里，这个中年男人无奈而悲伤的问我：这个在外人看来如此美满的婚姻对他来说却是藩篱和牢笼！没有爱情，只有亲情的婚姻能走多远？ 　　 　　第一个故事：来自福建男人的情感倾诉！ 　　 1 　　 　　2007年3月，因母亲病重，我从山东赶回福建老家。医院里，母亲还在昏迷。妻子水莲守在床前，见到我，她很欢喜，接着背过身子，不停用手抹眼泪。她从我手里接过行李，低声说：你看看妈吧；我先回家给你做饭。 　　 　　不久，我的两个弟弟都过来，催我先回家看看。我只得起身离开医院。 　　 　　这个我出生并成长的地方处处弥漫着让我亲切、熟悉而又陌生的气息——我已整整三年没有回来了。有个7]、8岁的男孩站在门口，怯生生地望着我，他长大很多，但我还是一眼认出，这是我儿子小光。我还未来得及叫他，从他身后又闪出一张小脸——一个很小的孩子，因为太小，我无法分辨出是男孩还是女孩，但那眉眼之间分明是几年前小光的模样。 　　 　　怔忪之中，水莲从屋里出来，说：爸爸回来了！爸爸真的回来了！你们赶紧叫啊！ 　　 　　大的叫了一声爸爸，小的，也跟在后面模糊不清地叫了一声，也是爸爸！ 　　 　　水莲说：你还没见过你闺女呢！她叫小军；都2岁多了。我，一直没告诉你，你又有了一个女儿！ 　　 　　我的头皮登时一阵发麻，恍如梦中！我想马上转身逃离这里，走到天边不回来。但，我知道我做不到，如果我够心狠，够明智，甚至哪怕我心思愚钝，我都不会一步走错，步步错！到今天，一层层枷锁套上身，再也无法逃脱！ 　　 　　 　　 　　 2 　　 　　18岁，在我考上大学，离家前夕，母亲郑重跟我谈话：我和水莲的父母都已同意两家结为亲家；你大学毕业就给你们完婚。所以到了外面，你要时刻牢记你是有女人的男人...

By Mark Gilbert Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- ``Dear customer, congratulations on your new Hokey-Cokey Bank Plc deposit account! You'll enjoy substantially higher interest rates than you can get anywhere else, because we'll be betting your life savings in the local casino. Should the roulette ball land on red rather than black, no worries! The U.K. government guarantees your money!'' Anyone who regards the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank as independent, insightful and in control has had their confidence shaken by the recent events. The U.S. central bank had to cut its key lending rate by half a point, and reduced the penalty it levies on banks that need emergency funds. That prompted some wag to mock up an advertisement of Chairman Ben Bernanke in a toy helicopter poised to shower the economy with dollar bills. The picture carries the tagline ``Warning: cannot really prevent a severe recession.'' In Europe, a promised rate increase t...