ForGave Collections

I recently had a conversation with a money manager and we discussed the virtue of stop losses. I hope I am recalling the story with as much accuracy as I can. If not the general theme would be the same had the characters been fictitious. Anyway he went on to tell me about a protégé of his who worked as his under study for several years before going off on his own. He described his under study as a very good stock picker with a knack for finding great winners. However like most investors he had one problem when the markets turned south (as they inevitably do sometimes) he had a hard time separating the idea that even good stocks could get taken apart if a broad market correction. Even with riding out several significant market corrections over the years the manager had an enviable track record. However like most people this year the manager really got pasted. His old friend and mentor asked him ” Didn’t you have any stops on your positions ? ” The younger under study answered ” No not r...

如果你独自在一间屋子里，似乎闻到好像有什么东西烧焦了，然后看到从门缝里飘过来一缕缕黑烟。你会怎么办？有人立刻会说快跑啊，打119啊……那么，如果你在一间大报告厅里，里面坐满了人，发生了同样的情况，可是其他人泰然自若该干什么还干什么，你又会怎么做呢？你得先东张西望犹豫一下，看看是不是自己鼻子和眼睛出了问题，可能还得再掐自己一下，确定不是在做梦。当看到其他人也在这么做时，你终于放心大胆地撒腿就跑了。至于打119嘛，“没我的事儿！” 这就是著名的“旁观者效应”。上面就是John Darley and Bibb Latane在1968年前后做的一系列实验之一。那些“泰然自若”的都是他们的托儿。他们发现在场的托儿越多，被试反应越慢。类似的实验他们还做了好几个，比如让一个被试和其他人通过电话交谈，然后电话的一端假装癫痫病犯了。如果被试知道只有自己一个人在跟他通电话的话，他会迅速报告。你一定猜到了，如果他以为有很多人一起通话的话，就可能缓报或不报。 引发这一系列实验的是1964年在纽约发生的一起命案。一名女子在自己家门口被刺死了，当时周围邻居至少有38人目睹了这场命案的发生，可是没有一个人见义勇为，连报警也是很久以后的事了。各大报纸都评论说纽约世风日下、人心不古。 那么人口稀少的小城镇又会怎样呢？另一些科学家做了这样的实验。他们把两辆同样的汽车敞开前盖分别停在大城市和人口稀少的小城镇。他们躲在暗处偷偷观察。几天下来，停在大城市的那辆车已经被人把能拆的零件都拆走了；而那辆停在小城镇的汽车总是被路人把前盖合上。 难道大城市的人心真的被污染了吗？心理学家偏偏不信这个邪，于是就有了这一系列的实验。最后他们发现，施助行为其实与城市的大小没有关系，而与人口的密集度有关系。人口的密集程度会导致两个效应：从众和责任分散。人们常常要以别人为参照物来定位自己，通过观察别人来判断自己是否正确，所以这就导致了多人在场时反应会变慢。同时每个人都以为别人会做，自己就不做了，或者抱着罚不责众的心态，所以也就没有人报警了。看来鲁迅说喜欢看热闹是中国人的劣根性造成的，其实不对，全世界人民都有这个臭毛病，只不过是中国人口密度太大了而已。 原因知道了，就得采取点措施了。军人的军装，警察的警车就有提示身份意识的作用，这样更加明确了自己的责任。出什么事儿的时候，责任一分散，无形中就给他们多分了很多。那要是没有穿制服的呢？...

shooting B&W directly can make significant different in DR.

昨个是开学日，尽管我仇恨学校厌恶幼生体，不过还是应景的聊聊学习话题吧。 毫无疑问，每个家长就希望自己的孩子聪明，然，你要怎么抚养一个聪明的孩子呢？ Carol S. Dweck 写了一份很有趣的相关论文：别告诉孩子他们很聪明！智力和才能不是决定性因素，努力真正帮你在学校和人生中攻城略地的关键。 他们调查了数百名1998年的五年级毕业生。心理学家给出一些IQ测试题，孩子们都回答得很好。然后，邪恶的科学家开始区别对待了——对一拨孩子说，"你的得分不错，你肯定是个聪明的孩子。"另一半得到的答复是，"哦，干得不错，你一定学习很努力。" 结果是，被称赞聪明的孩子更容易故步自封。那些受到“聪明的”鼓励的孩子往往不愿意接受挑战——他们喜欢轻松的任务，不同于，“努力的”孩子们那么积极——他们更乐于接受困难的工作以证明所学的知识。事实上，当我们解决了一个难题时，受到“聪明”的鼓励其实是对所作努力的一种否定。在接下来的测试中，“聪明的”孩子们即使得道了更容易的题目，分数还是下降了。相比之下，努力的孩子们即使在困难面前也不那么容易失去信心，其后的表现也有显著提高。

A radio station in Australia ran a phone-in competition to find the Most embarrassing moment in listener's lives. The final four were: 4th Place While in line at the bank one afternoon, my toddler decided to release some pent-up energy and started to run amuck. I was finally able to grab hold of her after receiving looks of disgust and annoyance from other patrons. I told her that if she didn't start behaving herself, right now, she would be punished. To my horror, she looked me in the eye and said in a voice just as threatening, 'If you don't let me go right now, I will tell Grandma I saw you kissing Daddy's Willie last night.' After this enlightening exchange, the silence was deafening. Even the tellers stopped what they were doing. I mustered the last of my dignity and walked out of the bank, with my daughter in tow. The last thing I heard as the door closed behind me were screams of laughter. 3rd Place It was the day before my 18th birthday. I was livin...

In a series of experiments, Vohs and her colleagues found ways to get people to think about money without explicitly telling them to do so. They gave some people tasks that involved unscrambling phrases about money. With others, they left piles of Monopoly money nearby. Another group saw a screensaver with various denominations of money. Other people, randomly selected, unscrambled phrases that were not about money, did not see Monopoly money, and saw different screensavers. In each case, those who had been led to think about money – let’s call them “the money group” – behaved differently from those who had not. * When given a difficult task and told that help was available, people in the money group took longer to ask for help. * When asked for help, people in the money group spent less time helping. * When told to move their chair so that they could talk with someone else, people in the money group left a greater distance between chairs. * When asked to choose...

北京时间8月19日消息 在今晚结束的男子举重105公斤以上级比赛上，德国选手马蒂亚斯·施泰纳以抓举203公斤、挺举258公斤、总成绩461公斤勇夺金牌。施泰纳在最后一举 举起258公斤，以1公斤的优势逆转摘得金牌。这枚金牌对施泰纳有特殊意义，他将金牌献给了逝去的妻子。 　　 　　 　　今天上 演的男子105公斤以上级举重比赛热血沸腾。今年欧锦赛亚军、德国选手马蒂亚斯·施泰纳和去年世锦赛亚军、俄罗斯选手叶夫根尼·奇吉舍夫，雅典奥运会亚 军、2007年世锦赛和2008年欧锦赛冠军拉脱维亚选手维克托斯·谢尔巴蒂斯之间的较量格外引人注目，抓举出现失误成绩落后的德国人施泰纳在挺举中最后 一举力压群雄举起了258公斤，成功逆转俄罗斯选手奇吉舍夫获得金牌。比赛后大力士施泰纳留下了泪水，“这枚金牌献给我去年去世的妻子，我非常思念她，是 这种信念支持我获得冠军。” 　　 　　 　　施泰纳获得金牌后激动不已，情绪几近失控，他先是大声狂呼，接着又跳了起来，电视机前观看比赛的数百万德国观众也为施泰纳喝彩。施泰纳的金牌还有一层更深的意义，这枚金牌同时也属于施泰纳逝去的妻子苏姗。 　　 　　 　 　施泰纳的妻子苏珊去年在一场车祸中不幸遇难，施泰纳从失去妻子的悲痛中走出来坚持训练，他要用奥运金牌回报一直默默支持自己的妻子。赛后的颁奖典礼上出 现了奥运会迄今最感人的场面之一，施泰纳站在最高领奖台上，从口袋中拿出亡妻苏珊的照片泪流满面。施泰纳亲吻了照片上的妻子，在德国国歌奏响的时候施泰纳 早已哽咽，整个颁奖过程中施泰纳始终紧紧握着亡妻的相片，眼里含着泪水。 　　 　　 　　26岁的施泰纳身高马大，感情却极为细 腻。亡妻苏珊的相片施泰纳必定会随身携带，他说：“我带着我最喜欢的妻子的照片，这是我和妻子在散步的时候拍的。她跑在我前面，我从身后喊了她，她回头的 时候我拍下了这张照片。相片里她笑得很自然，她并不知道我要给她拍照。我带着她的照片，想她的时候就拿出来看。训练的时候是她给我力量，我想今天我能拿到 冠军苏珊一定在为我高兴，她一定为我加油鼓劲，否则我不会有那么大的力量。” 　　 　　 　　这一幕也感动了电视机前的德国观 众，“施泰纳太了不起了。不光是因为他为德国队拿回了一枚奥运金牌，更是因为她是一个真正的男人。他对自己的妻子十分忠诚，为了圆他妻子的冠军梦想，施泰 纳一年来强忍悲痛日益抓紧训练。金牌是施泰...

explain all.

By: Alan S. Miller Ph.D., Satoshi Kanazawa Ph.D. Human nature is one of those things that everybody talks about but no one can define precisely. Every time we fall in love, fight with our spouse, get upset about the influx of immigrants into our country, or go to church, we are, in part, behaving as a human animal with our own unique evolved nature—human nature. This means two things. First, our thoughts, feelings, and behavior are produced not only by our individual experiences and environment in our own lifetime but also by what happened to our ancestors millions of years ago. Second, our thoughts, feelings, and behavior are shared, to a large extent, by all men or women, despite seemingly large cultural differences. Human behavior is a product both of our innate human nature and of our individual experience and environment. In this article, however, we emphasize biological influences on human behavior, because most social scientists explain human behavior as if evolution stops at th...

give me a hug..

死结是如何形成的？当我们认为，每一个方面都很重要，每个方面都无法让步，而其中他们的关系有互相牵扯（关系可以简单也可以复杂），死结就形成了。

This is a case of photographer photographing photographer. The following photographs were taken by photographer Hans van de Vorst at the Grand Canyon, Arizona. The descriptions are his own. The identity of the photographer in the photos is unknown. I was simply stunned seeing this guy standing on this solitary rock IN the Grand Canyon. The canyon's depth is 900 meters here. The rock on the right is next to the canyon and safe. Watching this guy on his thong sandals, with a camera and a tripod I asked myself 3 questions: 1. How did he climb that rock? 2. Why not take that sunset picture on that rock to the right, which is perfectly safe? 3. How will he get back? This is the point of no return. After the sun set behind the canyon's horizon he packed his things (having only one hand available) and prepared himself for the jump. This took about 2 minutes. At that point he had the full attention of the crowd. After that, he jumped on his thong sandals... The canyon's depth is ...

Gradually, people are becoming aware that we have an inflation problem, which seems to stretch around the world. Perhaps it is time to think about how to resolve it. Certainly a few coy remarks by some Federal Reserve representative aren't going to be effective. If that were all it took, then nobody would ever have an inflation problem. You would just say, "we are concerned about inflation," and it would disappear - poof! - like a cartoon genie. Sorry: not quite so easy. Inflation is childishly simple to understand, but economists like to remain confused. When a currency loses value, markets gradually adjust to reflect this new development. When the dollar's value falls in half, things that cost $10 eventually cost $20, more or less. It's no more complicated than that. The dollar's decline is best measured against gold - for centuries considered a stable measure of value. The dollar is now worth about 1/900th of an ounce of gold, compared to about 1/350th on a...

曾经看过一篇写有关“窗与门”的散文，大概意思就是说，门是“自我的产生”也是“人与人的隔膜”，而窗则是“人渴望与外界交流”的象征。

Gavin Kennedy finds Don Arthur at Club Troppo asking "What if Adam Smith was Right about Poverty?" This relates to the idea often heard in debates about poverty that since the material well-being of the poor has increased over time, there's no need to worry about inequality: Adam Smith on Poverty, by Gavin Kennedy: A post by Don Arthur in the Australian Blog, Club Troppo, (here) which has been quoted on Lost Legacy in the past when I referred to articles by Nicholas Gruen, opens an interesting and important discussion on poverty in societies and Adam Smith’s expressed view on the issue. I only quote some parts of it, and I have deleted several excellent references and discussions of recent work by academics on related matters. Check the link and read them for yourself: What if Adam Smith was right about poverty? Don Arthur, June 22: Well-being isn’t just about our relationship with things, it’s also about our relationships with each other. Poverty hurts, not just ...

“Don’t look, Edward.” The instruction came from Elizabeth, directed at her youngest son. We were driving through the Bois de Boulogne, a notorious hangout of extravagant prostitutes. “Besides, they’re not what you think they are. They’re disgraceful. Sordid. Some of them are men dressed up as women.” Of course, Edward craned his neck to look even harder. And so do we crane our necks today...to take a better look at a counterfeit. That is also what makes financial history so entertaining, after all; it is like the Bois de Boulogne – full of jackasses and imposters. Alan Greenspan will go down in it, of that we are certain. He will be remembered as the greatest central banker since John Law. Mr. Law invented modern financial bubbles. Dr. Greenspan perfected them. In the early 18th century, John Law was on the lam in France, after having killed Beau Wilson in a duel in England. France was broke, thanks to the grandiose spending of Louis 14th. A clever rake, Law proposed to solve the Regen...

Over the past few months, we have heard numerous times in the media that the Federal Reserve and the other central banks have a choice between economic growth and rising prices (wrongly defined as inflation). In fact, most investors have been brainwashed into believing that the policies that stimulate strong economic growth automatically result in higher prices within the economy. For example, in our current situation, it is now widely believed that by slashing rates and adding liquidity to the financial system, the Federal Reserve is opting for strong economic growth in the United States. which in turn is causing the consumer price levels to rise. In other words, most people are being hoodwinked into believing that the prices are rising due to strong growth. In my view, the above assessment is totally incorrect. After all, any student of economics will be able to tell you that if the money supply was constant, strong growth would not lead to higher prices. On the contrary, strong econ...